Four Major Trends Developing in 2024 Presidential Election
United Daily News, May 6, 2023
This Monday, United Daily News released an opinion poll on Taiwan’s presidential election which has attracted great attention. This election poll is more complete compared to the others that were published recently. Many news reports this week discussed this poll, so an accurate reading of the poll may let us understand more about the trends of the upcoming election.
Popularity Gap Between Terry Gou and Hou Yu-ih: Narrow and Within Margin of Error
First, this poll indicates that although starting late, Terry Gou, founder of Hon Hai Precision Industry Company (Foxconn), has hastened to catch up with New Taipei Mayor Hou Yu-ih. For example, in the poll, Mr. Hou and Mr. Gou each got a 29 percent support rate in their respective matchups with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) potential candidate Vice President William Lai and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) potential candidate Ko Wen-je.
Recently, Mr. Gou busily visited southern and northern Taiwan. When he met with political figures, Mr. Gou gave speeches and controlled the agenda with high voices. In contrast, because of the political reality, Mr. Hou has not announced his candidacy and lately was trapped by the DPP with the New Taipei City Council in session. Consequently, the popularity gap between Mr. Gou and Mr. Hou has rapidly narrowed. But whether this trend will continue without showing the effect of diminishing marginal utility remains to be seen.
According to some, because Mr. Gou won over Mr. Lai (44 percent vs. 33 percent) by more percentage points than Mr. Hou (42 percent vs. 35 percent), Mr. Gou is a stronger candidate than Mr. Hou. Others even said that United Daily News is supporting Mr. Gou. These are over-analyses. In this poll, the sampling’s margin of error does not exceed 2.9 percent with a confidence level of 95 percent. This means that the gap between 44 percent and 42 percent is too narrow and is not statistically significant to say Mr. Gou is leading. The only certainty is the competition between Mr. Gou and Mr. Hou is very tense and close.
Amid Public Dislike of DPP, President Tsai May Become Lai’s Liability
It is worth noting that the atmosphere where people disliked the DPP in the local elections last year has not dissipated. The questionnaire asked which party’s candidate is the least favored in the 2024 presidential election, and 34 percent answered DPP. This number far exceeded that of the Kuomintang (KMT) candidate (13 percent) and TPP candidate (14 percent). The trend shows that while the DPP may be the most favored political party, a lot of people still dislike the DPP and the number cannot be overlooked.
In the past seven years, the DPP administration has ruled Taiwan very arrogantly, especially when they became overly proud of their performance in the combat against the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Several days ago, they even used government budget to hold an event for the purpose of praising their own work, they are self-satisfied and are unaware of how ordinary people are feeling. Aside from political views, in terms of people’s livelihood, there are shortages in eggs, medications, pigs, and chickens. In terms of industrial development, there are shortages in water, electricity, labor, land, and talents. The whole DPP administration has lost its morals and abilities, and the political appointees never addressed the errors but intentionally ignored people’s dissatisfaction.
It can be said that the DPP as led by President Tsai has become Mr. Lai’s liability. The DPP cannot help Mr. Lai but has instead become a burden. After Mr. Lai assumed the chairmanship of the DPP, he announced policies on academic ethics and the exclusion of candidates who have criminal backgrounds. The purpose was to clean the DPP up and attempt to be humble and self-reflective. But with the DPP’s long-term disease, it is difficult to determine whether people will buy this quick medication.
Energy Policy a Hot Topic, With Focus on Small Nuclear Power Plants
The third message revealed by the poll is that many issues are emerging and candidates of different political parties have the room to articulate and manipulate them. One notable issue is the policy of “zero nuclear power in 2025.” 44 percent of people do not support this policy, far exceeding the 33 percent in favor. This result may overturn many people’s idea of the energy policy and become the breaking point in the DPP’s campaign issues.
Seizing the opportunity, Mr. Gou initially proposed to build a small nuclear power plant in the foothills of Kaohsiung’s Banping Mountain. After he was blasted by the DPP, Mr. Gou later proposed to build one small nuclear power plant in each of the cities or counties in Taiwan. His proposal invited more negative reactions. Recently, the already cold energy policy has become a hot topic, people from the industry, the government, and the academia have joined the discussions, so it may become a new critical point in the 2024 presidential election.
With Different Views on Cross-Strait Relations, Both Parties Look to Solidify Basic Support
While the energy policy may hurt the DPP, the cross-strait policy has, unexpectedly, yet to become the DPP’s liability. When asked about the risk of a cross-strait war in 10 years, 47 percent of those polled answered “not high,” and more than 34 percent answered “high.” The support rates of the KMT’s or DPP’s cross-strait policy are almost the same. This means that people’s views are divergent on cross-strait policy. In playing the cross-strait card, the basic support of all parties will be strengthened.
The next step is for the KMT to designate its presidential candidate, but they still have many issues to fight over internally. As for the DPP, their new policy to ban people with criminal backgrounds to run for public office has seen former President Chen Shui-bian make scenes with his differing opinions. May will be a month of rapid changes. After the KMT settles on its candidate, the DPP finalizes its policy, and the KMT and TPP decide whether to cooperate or not, the situation will strike a new balance, and that is when a new opinion poll can offer more information.